Andrei Arlovski vs Josh Barnett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record35-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"Reach78,0"
245 lbsWeight248 lbs
American Top TeamTeamUWF USA
What's at stake
Josh Barnett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-8→ 1638
If they win+8→ 1786
If they lose-16→ 1762
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiJosh Barnett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Barnett63%
Andrei Arlovski 37%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Barnett a 63% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Josh Barnett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1778 to 1646, a 132-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Josh Barnett 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.