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Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach77"
245 lbsWeight250 lbs
American Top TeamTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1646
If they win+12→ 1658
If they lose-12→ 1634
Junior dos SantosNow 1643
If they win+12→ 1655
If they lose-12→ 1631

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
46%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.37
Takedown avg.
0.30
35%
Takedown accuracy
50%
77%
Takedown defense
82%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiJunior dos Santos
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
3 (9%)
Submission
1 (4%)
14 (41%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Junior dos Santos66%
Andrei Arlovski 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 66% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1646 vs 1643), separated by just 3 points.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.