Andrei Arlovski vs Marcio Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record8-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
245 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGracie Fusion
What's at stake
Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marcio Cruz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1647
If they lose-14→ 1623
If they win+19→ 1601
If they lose-13→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiMarcio Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Andrei Arlovski and Marcio Cruz within a point of even.
Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1582, a 55-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Cruz 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.