Andrei Arlovski vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record22-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
77"Reach75"
245 lbsWeight262 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1650
If they lose-11→ 1626
If they win+14→ 1686
If they lose-18→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcos Rogerio de Lima78%
Andrei Arlovski 22%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Rogerio de Lima a 78% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Marcos Rogerio de Lima holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1637, a 35-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 82%.
Andrei Arlovski and Marcos Rogerio de Lima share 1 common opponent: Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Andrei Arlovski carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.