Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Stipe Miocic

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach 80"
245 lbsWeight234 lbs
American Top TeamTeamStrong Style Fight Team

What's at stake

Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-8→ 1629
Stipe MiocicNow 1765
If they win+10→ 1775
If they lose-22→ 1743

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
46%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.01
57%
Strike defense
52%
0.37
Takedown avg.
1.74
35%
Takedown accuracy
34%
77%
Takedown defense
65%
0.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiStipe Miocic
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
15 (75%)
3 (9%)
Submission
0 (0%)
14 (41%)
Decision
5 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Stipe Miocic82%
Andrei Arlovski 18%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 82% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1637, a 128-point edge.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.

Stipe Miocic carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.