Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record17-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach78"
245 lbsWeight262 lbs
American Top TeamTeamUltimate Kombat Fitness

What's at stake

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1637
If they win+17→ 1654
If they lose-7→ 1630
Waldo Cortes-AcostaNow 1779
If they win+10→ 1789
If they lose-22→ 1757

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
5.54
46%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
57%
Strike defense
57%
0.37
Takedown avg.
0.44
35%
Takedown accuracy
57%
77%
Takedown defense
73%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.11

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiWaldo Cortes-Acosta
165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (53%)
3 (9%)
Submission
1 (6%)
14 (41%)
Decision
7 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Waldo Cortes-Acosta92%
Andrei Arlovski 8%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Waldo Cortes-Acosta a 92% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Waldo Cortes-Acosta holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1779 to 1637, a 142-point edge.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.