Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Wesley Correira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record21-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
245 lbsWeight253 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCabbage MMA

What's at stake

Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Wesley Correira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1637
If they win+10→ 1647
If they lose-14→ 1623
Wesley CorreiraNow 1574
If they win+14→ 1588
If they lose-10→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
2.96
46%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
10.33
57%
Strike defense
41%
0.37
Takedown avg.
0
35%
Takedown accuracy
0%
77%
Takedown defense
91%
0.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiWesley Correira
160016501700201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
17 (85%)
3 (9%)
Submission
2 (10%)
14 (41%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Wesley Correira57%
Andrei Arlovski 43%Elo baseline: 41%

The Combat Edge model makes Wesley Correira a 57% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (41%).

Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1574, a 63-point edge.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Wesley Correira 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.