Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Semenov vs Joilton Lutterbach

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-9-2Record38-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TeamTeam Peregrino

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrei SemenovNow 1698
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-12→ 1686
Joilton LutterbachNow 1702
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.51
Sig. strikes / min
0
13%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
61%
Strike defense
TBD
0.77
Takedown avg.
TBD
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
56%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.77
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Andrei SemenovJoilton Lutterbach
170020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

11 (32%)
KO/TKO
14 (37%)
15 (44%)
Submission
13 (34%)
8 (24%)
Decision
11 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Joilton Lutterbach61%
Andrei Semenov 39%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Joilton Lutterbach a 61% favorite over Andrei Semenov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1698 vs 1702), separated by just 4 points.

Andrei Semenov enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Andrei Semenov finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Joilton Lutterbach 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.