Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrew Craig vs Cezar Ferreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record14-11-0
WelterweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight216 lbs
Team TookeTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

Andrew Craig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Cezar Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrew CraigNow 1631
If they win+14→ 1645
If they lose-18→ 1613
Cezar FerreiraNow 1591
If they win+13→ 1604
If they lose-11→ 1580

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.39
Sig. strikes / min
1.90
40%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
51%
Strike defense
54%
0.53
Takedown avg.
2.69
38%
Takedown accuracy
54%
72%
Takedown defense
85%
0
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Andrew CraigCezar Ferreira
1600165017002014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
1 (11%)
Submission
4 (29%)
5 (56%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Andrew Craig70%
Cezar Ferreira 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Andrew Craig a 70% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Andrew Craig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1591, a 40-point edge.

Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Andrew Craig finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Cezar Ferreira 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.