Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrew Craig vs Luke Barnatt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record15-10-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'6"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team TookeTeamTsunami Gym

What's at stake

Andrew Craig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Luke Barnatt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrew CraigNow 1631
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-19→ 1612
Luke BarnattNow 1562
If they win+14→ 1576
If they lose-10→ 1552

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.39
Sig. strikes / min
4.43
40%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.87
51%
Strike defense
59%
0.53
Takedown avg.
0.63
38%
Takedown accuracy
43%
72%
Takedown defense
64%
0
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Andrew CraigLuke Barnatt
15501600165017002014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
9 (60%)
1 (11%)
Submission
4 (27%)
5 (56%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Andrew Craig61%
Luke Barnatt 39%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Andrew Craig a 61% favorite over Luke Barnatt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Andrew Craig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1562, a 69-point edge.

Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Andrew Craig finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Luke Barnatt 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.