Andrew Craig vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record21-9-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach76,0"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team TookeTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Andrew Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1649
If they lose-14→ 1617
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrew CraigRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Andrew Craig51%
Rafael Natal 49%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Andrew Craig a 51% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Natal's way (44%).
Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1631, a 42-point edge.
Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Andrew Craig finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.