Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrew Holbrook vs Evan Elder

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Evan Elder
us

Evan Elder

“The Phenom”

10-2-0LightweightUFC

1650Good

Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
70,0"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Indy Boxing & GrapplingTeamNick Diaz Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrew HolbrookNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Evan ElderNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.20
Sig. strikes / min
5.66
49%
Strike accuracy
51%
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.94
54%
Strike defense
57%
0.85
Takedown avg.
0.48
18%
Takedown accuracy
15%
10%
Takedown defense
40%
2.12
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Andrew HolbrookEvan Elder
1600165017002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
9 (75%)
Submission
2 (20%)
2 (17%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Elder56%
Andrew Holbrook 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Elder a 56% favorite over Andrew Holbrook in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrew Holbrook's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1650), separated by just 2 points.

Andrew Holbrook enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Andrew Holbrook finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Evan Elder 60%.

Evan Elder carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.