Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrew Holbrook vs Gregor Gillespie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record14-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
70,0"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Indy Boxing & GrapplingTeamBellmore Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Gregor Gillespie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Andrew Holbrook carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrew HolbrookNow 1652
If they win+21→ 1673
If they lose-11→ 1641
Gregor GillespieNow 1773
If they win+11→ 1784
If they lose-21→ 1752

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.20
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
49%
Strike accuracy
53%
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
54%
Strike defense
58%
0.85
Takedown avg.
6.86
18%
Takedown accuracy
48%
10%
Takedown defense
100%
2.12
Submission avg.
0.76

Trajectory

Andrew HolbrookGregor Gillespie
165017001750201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
9 (75%)
Submission
5 (36%)
2 (17%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Gregor Gillespie82%
Andrew Holbrook 18%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Gregor Gillespie a 82% favorite over Andrew Holbrook in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Gregor Gillespie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1773 to 1652, a 121-point edge.

Andrew Holbrook enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Andrew Holbrook finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Gregor Gillespie 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.