Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrew Holbrook vs Lance Gibson Jr.

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
70,0"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
Indy Boxing & GrapplingTeamGibson Kickboxing & Pankration

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrew HolbrookNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.20
Sig. strikes / min
2
49%
Strike accuracy
42%
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
54%
Strike defense
54%
0.85
Takedown avg.
2
18%
Takedown accuracy
67%
10%
Takedown defense
50%
2.12
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrew HolbrookLance Gibson Jr.
1650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
9 (75%)
Submission
3 (30%)
2 (17%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.70%
Andrew Holbrook 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 70% favorite over Andrew Holbrook in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrew Holbrook's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1652), separated by just 0 points.

Andrew Holbrook enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Andrew Holbrook finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Lance Gibson Jr. 80%.

Lance Gibson Jr. carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.