Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrzej Grzebyk vs Bret Bergmark

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record6-1-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Ralph Gracie RzeszowTeamCesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrzej GrzebykNow 1618
If they win+12→ 1630
If they lose-12→ 1606
Bret BergmarkNow 1620
If they win+24→ 1644
If they lose-24→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
TBD
Strike accuracy
53%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.78
TBD
Strike defense
38%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.17
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
4.17

Trajectory

Andrzej GrzebykBret Bergmark
16001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (59%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
3 (14%)
Submission
1 (17%)
6 (27%)
Decision
3 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Andrzej Grzebyk and Bret Bergmark within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1618 vs 1620), separated by just 2 points.

Andrzej Grzebyk enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bret Bergmark enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Andrzej Grzebyk finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Bret Bergmark 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.