Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrzej Grzebyk vs Jason Tan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record5-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Ralph Gracie RzeszowTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrzej GrzebykNow 1618
If they win+12→ 1630
If they lose-12→ 1606
Jason TanNow 1615
If they win+24→ 1639
If they lose-24→ 1591

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.69
TBD
Strike accuracy
30%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.37
TBD
Strike defense
19%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrzej GrzebykJason Tan
1550160016501700200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (59%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
3 (14%)
Submission
2 (40%)
6 (27%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Jason Tan53%
Andrzej Grzebyk 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jason Tan a 53% favorite over Andrzej Grzebyk in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrzej Grzebyk's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1618 vs 1615), separated by just 3 points.

Andrzej Grzebyk enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Andrzej Grzebyk finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Jason Tan 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.