Combat Edge Intelligence

André Lima vs Joseph Morales

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record14-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
67″Reach69"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Lucas MineiroTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

André LimaNow 1718
If they win+16→ 1734
If they lose-16→ 1702
Joseph MoralesNow 1714
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.06
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
60%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.49
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.11
58%
Strike defense
57%
1.36
Takedown avg.
1.23
75%
Takedown accuracy
43%
75%
Takedown defense
29%
1.14
Submission avg.
2.87

Trajectory

André LimaJoseph Morales
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
1 (10%)
Submission
8 (57%)
4 (40%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

André Lima53%
Joseph Morales 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes André Lima a 53% favorite over Joseph Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1718 vs 1714), separated by just 4 points.

Joseph Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.

André Lima finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Morales 71%.

Joseph Morales carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.