Combat Edge Intelligence

Andy Ogle vs Josh Grispi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Andy Ogle

Andy Ogle

“The Little Axe”

9-6-0FeatherweightUFC

1556Solid
Josh Grispi
us

Josh Grispi

“The Fluke”

14-5-0FeatherweightUFC

1659Good

Tale of the tape

9-6-0Record14-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
144 lbsWeight146 lbs
Team KaobonTeamSouth Shore Sport Fighting

What's at stake

Josh Grispi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Andy Ogle carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andy OgleNow 1556
If they win+21→ 1577
If they lose-11→ 1545
Josh GrispiNow 1659
If they win+11→ 1670
If they lose-21→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.24
Sig. strikes / min
1.44
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.71
50%
Strike defense
50%
1.44
Takedown avg.
1.97
27%
Takedown accuracy
37%
58%
Takedown defense
17%
0
Submission avg.
2.25

Trajectory

Andy OgleJosh Grispi
1550160016501700175020112012201320142015

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
3 (33%)
Submission
7 (50%)
4 (44%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Grispi67%
Andy Ogle 33%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Grispi a 67% favorite over Andy Ogle in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Josh Grispi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1556, a 103-point edge.

Andy Ogle enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Josh Grispi enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Andy Ogle finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Josh Grispi 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.