Angel Alvarez vs Danny Castillo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record17-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
If they win+12→ 1616
If they lose-12→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Angel AlvarezDanny Castillo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Angel Alvarez73%
Danny Castillo 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 73% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1604), separated by just 2 points.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Danny Castillo 59%.
Danny Castillo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.