Combat Edge Intelligence

Angel Alvarez vs Mac Danzig

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record22-12-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamDanzig MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Angel AlvarezNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Mac DanzigNow 1597
If they win+12→ 1609
If they lose-12→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.39
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
TBD
Strike defense
57%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.20
TBD
Takedown accuracy
38%
TBD
Takedown defense
46%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Angel AlvarezMac Danzig
15501600201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
0 (0%)
Submission
11 (50%)
7 (64%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Angel Alvarez70%
Mac Danzig 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 70% favorite over Mac Danzig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1597), separated by just 9 points.

Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Mac Danzig 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.