Combat Edge Intelligence

Angel Alvarez vs Mike Breeden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record11-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMarathon MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Angel AlvarezNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Mike BreedenNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.75
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.28
TBD
Strike defense
43%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.98
TBD
Takedown accuracy
30%
TBD
Takedown defense
68%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Angel AlvarezMike Breeden
155016001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
7 (64%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Angel Alvarez66%
Mike Breeden 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 66% favorite over Mike Breeden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1604), separated by just 2 points.

Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Mike Breeden 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.