Combat Edge Intelligence

Angel Alvarez vs Will Kerr

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record9-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamStrike Zone MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Angel AlvarezNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Will KerrNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.91
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.22
TBD
Strike defense
33%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
14.34

Trajectory

Angel AlvarezWill Kerr
155016001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (44%)
7 (64%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Angel Alvarez70%
Will Kerr 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 70% favorite over Will Kerr in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1606), separated by just 0 points.

Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Will Kerr 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.