Combat Edge Intelligence

Ansar Chalangov vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record23-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Legion Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Ansar Chalangov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ansar ChalangovNow 1663
If they win+12→ 1675
If they lose-20→ 1643
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+15→ 1587
If they lose-9→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.68
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
67%
Strike accuracy
42%
1.69
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
55%
Strike defense
63%
0
Takedown avg.
0.71
0%
Takedown accuracy
61%
0%
Takedown defense
63%
7.63
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Ansar ChalangovThiago Alves
1600165020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (21%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
10 (71%)
Submission
1 (4%)
1 (7%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Ansar Chalangov61%
Thiago Alves 39%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Ansar Chalangov a 61% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Ansar Chalangov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1572, a 91-point edge.

Ansar Chalangov enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ansar Chalangov finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.