Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Brendan Schaub
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record10-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
240 lbsWeight238 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brendan Schaub carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1788
If they lose-15→ 1764
If they win+20→ 1701
If they lose-12→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1685 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraBrendan Schaub
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira67%
Brendan Schaub 33%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 67% favorite over Brendan Schaub in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1779 to 1681, a 98-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Brendan Schaub 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.