Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77"Reach77"
240 lbsWeight241 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Cain Velasquez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1790
If they lose-13→ 1766
If they win+18→ 1754
If they lose-14→ 1722
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1738 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira60%
Cain Velasquez 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 60% favorite over Cain Velasquez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1779 to 1736, a 43-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez share 1 common opponent: Fabrício Werdum.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.