Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Dave Herman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record22-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
240 lbsWeight223 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Dave Herman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1806
If they lose-18→ 1782
If they win+24→ 1633
If they lose-8→ 1601
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraDave Herman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira67%
Dave Herman 33%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 67% favorite over Dave Herman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1609, a 191-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Dave Herman 91%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Dave Herman share 2 common opponents: Stefan Struve and Roy Nelson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.