Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Evgeny Goncharov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record24-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77"Reach-
240 lbsWeight266 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamRaty Team· 1670 avg Elo · 14 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1791
If they lose-12→ 1767
If they win+12→ 1784
If they lose-12→ 1760
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraEvgeny Goncharov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Evgeny Goncharov52%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Evgeny Goncharov a 52% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1779 vs 1772), separated by just 7 points.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Evgeny Goncharov enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Evgeny Goncharov 42%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.