Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Fabrício Werdum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record24-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"Reach45,0"
240 lbsWeight246 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamWerdum Combat Team
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1792
If they lose-11→ 1768
If they win+11→ 1813
If they lose-13→ 1789
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraFabrício Werdum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira53%
Fabrício Werdum 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 53% favorite over Fabrício Werdum in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fabrício Werdum's way (47%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1779, a 23-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabrício Werdum share 1 common opponent: Cain Velasquez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.