Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Randy Couture
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record19-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77"Reach75"
240 lbsWeight203 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Randy Couture carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1809
If they lose-15→ 1785
If they win+15→ 1736
If they lose-9→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraRandy Couture
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira56%
Randy Couture 44%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 56% favorite over Randy Couture in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1721, a 79-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Randy Couture 58%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Randy Couture share 1 common opponent: Tim Sylvia.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.