Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
77"Reach72,0"
240 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1786
If they lose-17→ 1762
If they win+17→ 1649
If they lose-7→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira78%
Roy Nelson 22%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 78% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1779 to 1632, a 147-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Frank Mir.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.