Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Stefan Struve

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-10-1Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height7'0"
77"Reach84,5"
240 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamTeam Schrijber

What's at stake

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Stefan Struve carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraNow 1800
If they win+8→ 1808
If they lose-16→ 1784
Stefan StruveNow 1664
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-8→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
3.12
43%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.04
55%
Strike defense
47%
1.30
Takedown avg.
0.56
29%
Takedown accuracy
47%
36%
Takedown defense
56%
2.39
Submission avg.
1.68

Trajectory

Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraStefan Struve
1650170017501800185020132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (9%)
KO/TKO
8 (29%)
21 (62%)
Submission
18 (64%)
10 (29%)
Decision
2 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira57%
Stefan Struve 43%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 57% favorite over Stefan Struve in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1664, a 136-point edge.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.

Stefan Struve carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.