Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Stefan Struve
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height7'0"
77"Reach84,5"
240 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamTeam Schrijber
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Stefan Struve carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1787
If they lose-16→ 1763
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-8→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraStefan Struve
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira52%
Stefan Struve 48%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 52% favorite over Stefan Struve in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1779 to 1663, a 116-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.
Stefan Struve carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.