Anthony Birchak vs Astemir Nagoev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record8-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'3"
69,0"Reach-
135 lbsWeight127 lbs
Luta Elite MMATeamBest Fighters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anthony BirchakAstemir Nagoev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Birchak61%
Astemir Nagoev 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Birchak a 61% favorite over Astemir Nagoev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Astemir Nagoev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1608), separated by just 1 points.
Anthony Birchak enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anthony Birchak finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Astemir Nagoev 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.