Anthony Birchak vs Gustavo Lopez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record16-8-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'5"
69,0"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Luta Elite MMATeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Gustavo Lopez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Birchak carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1623
If they lose-15→ 1591
If they win+11→ 1649
If they lose-13→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony BirchakGustavo Lopez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo Lopez60%
Anthony Birchak 40%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo Lopez a 60% favorite over Anthony Birchak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Gustavo Lopez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1606, a 32-point edge.
Anthony Birchak enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gustavo Lopez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Anthony Birchak finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Gustavo Lopez 94%.
Anthony Birchak carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.