Anthony Birchak vs Thomas Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record22-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69,0"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Luta Elite MMATeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
Thomas Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Anthony Birchak carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1593
If they win+9→ 1710
If they lose-15→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony BirchakThomas Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thomas Almeida78%
Anthony Birchak 22%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Almeida a 78% favorite over Anthony Birchak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Thomas Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1605, a 96-point edge.
Anthony Birchak enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thomas Almeida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Anthony Birchak finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Almeida 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.