Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Hamilton vs Marcel Fortuna

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-11-0Record10-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'1"
76,0"Reach42,0"
261 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamRalph Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Marcel Fortuna is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Anthony Hamilton carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony HamiltonNow 1597
If they win+14→ 1611
If they lose-10→ 1587
Marcel FortunaNow 1642
If they win+14→ 1656
If they lose-18→ 1624

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.91
Sig. strikes / min
3.83
66%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.52
46%
Strike defense
65%
2.62
Takedown avg.
0.45
42%
Takedown accuracy
8%
79%
Takedown defense
75%
0
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

Anthony HamiltonMarcel Fortuna
160016502020202120222023

Win method breakdown

10 (48%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
2 (10%)
Submission
5 (50%)
9 (43%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcel Fortuna70%
Anthony Hamilton 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcel Fortuna a 70% favorite over Anthony Hamilton in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Marcel Fortuna holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1597, a 45-point edge.

Anthony Hamilton enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Anthony Hamilton finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Marcel Fortuna 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.