Anthony Hernandez vs Royce Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record15-2-3
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75"Reach--
185 lbsWeight176 lbs
MMA Gold Fight TeamTeamGracie Humaita
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1740
If they lose-16→ 1708
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anthony HernandezRoyce Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Hernandez61%
Royce Gracie 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Hernandez a 61% favorite over Royce Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Royce Gracie's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1724 vs 1725), separated by just 1 points.
Anthony Hernandez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Royce Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Anthony Hernandez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Royce Gracie 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.