Anthony Johnson vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-0Record23-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78''Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
Anthony Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1840
If they lose-16→ 1816
If they win+16→ 1724
If they lose-8→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony JohnsonAntônio Rogério Nogueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Johnson83%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 17%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Johnson a 83% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Anthony Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1832 to 1708, a 124-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anthony Johnson finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Antônio Rogério Nogueira 61%.
Anthony Johnson and Antônio Rogério Nogueira share 2 common opponents: Ryan Bader and Phil Davis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.