Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Johnson vs Dan Hardy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dan Hardy

Dan Hardy

“The Outlaw”

25-10-0WelterweightUFC

1684Good

Tale of the tape

23-6-0Record25-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
78''Reach74"
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Rough House

What's at stake

Anthony Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Dan Hardy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony JohnsonNow 1832
If they win+7→ 1839
If they lose-17→ 1815
Dan HardyNow 1684
If they win+17→ 1701
If they lose-7→ 1677

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.25
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
48%
Strike accuracy
35%
1.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
60%
Strike defense
51%
2.43
Takedown avg.
0.73
58%
Takedown accuracy
35%
77%
Takedown defense
35%
0.64
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Anthony JohnsonDan Hardy
16501700175018001850201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

17 (74%)
KO/TKO
14 (56%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (8%)
6 (26%)
Decision
9 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Johnson83%
Dan Hardy 17%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Johnson a 83% favorite over Dan Hardy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Anthony Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1832 to 1684, a 148-point edge.

Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Anthony Johnson finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Dan Hardy 64%.

Anthony Johnson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.