Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Johnson vs Josh Koscheck

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-6-0Record17-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
78''Reach73"
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamDethrone Base Camp

What's at stake

Anthony Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Josh Koscheck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony JohnsonNow 1832
If they win+6→ 1838
If they lose-18→ 1814
Josh KoscheckNow 1644
If they win+18→ 1662
If they lose-6→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.25
Sig. strikes / min
1.79
48%
Strike accuracy
36%
1.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.27
60%
Strike defense
63%
2.43
Takedown avg.
2.46
58%
Takedown accuracy
48%
77%
Takedown defense
64%
0.64
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Anthony JohnsonJosh Koscheck
16501700175018001850201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

17 (74%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (24%)
6 (26%)
Decision
7 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Johnson83%
Josh Koscheck 17%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Johnson a 83% favorite over Josh Koscheck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Anthony Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1832 to 1644, a 188-point edge.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Anthony Johnson finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Josh Koscheck 59%.

Anthony Johnson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.