Anthony Johnson vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-0Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78''Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1844
If they lose-12→ 1820
If they win+12→ 1838
If they lose-12→ 1814
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1748 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony JohnsonRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Johnson66%
Ryan Bader 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Johnson a 66% favorite over Ryan Bader in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1832 vs 1826), separated by just 6 points.
Anthony Johnson finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Anthony Johnson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.