Anthony Johnson vs Tommy Speer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-0Record21-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
78''ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTBD
What's at stake
Anthony Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Tommy Speer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+3→ 1835
If they lose-21→ 1811
If they win+41→ 1560
If they lose-7→ 1512
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony JohnsonTommy Speer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Johnson83%
Tommy Speer 17%Elo baseline: 86%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Johnson a 83% favorite over Tommy Speer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (86%).
Anthony Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1832 to 1519, a 313-point edge.
Anthony Johnson finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Speer 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.