Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Pettis vs Diego Ferreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-14-0Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72,5"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Roufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Anthony Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony PettisNow 1680
If they win+14→ 1694
If they lose-10→ 1670
Diego FerreiraNow 1737
If they win+10→ 1747
If they lose-14→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
4.70
48%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.46
54%
Strike defense
56%
0.61
Takedown avg.
0.82
50%
Takedown accuracy
3%
60%
Takedown defense
58%
1.06
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Anthony PettisDiego Ferreira
170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (44%)
KO/TKO
5 (25%)
8 (32%)
Submission
7 (35%)
6 (24%)
Decision
8 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Ferreira76%
Anthony Pettis 24%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 76% favorite over Anthony Pettis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1680, a 57-point edge.

Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Diego Ferreira 60%.

Diego Ferreira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.