Anthony Pettis vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1693
If they lose-11→ 1669
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony PettisDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Pettis57%
Donald Cerrone 43%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Pettis a 57% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Donald Cerrone's way (46%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1680, a 30-point edge.
Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone share 1 common opponent: Alex Morono.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.