Anthony Pettis vs Eddie Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record30-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72,5"Reach69,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Eddie Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Anthony Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-8→ 1672
If they win+8→ 1804
If they lose-16→ 1780
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony PettisEddie Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Eddie Alvarez58%
Anthony Pettis 42%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Eddie Alvarez a 58% favorite over Anthony Pettis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Eddie Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1680, a 116-point edge.
Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Eddie Alvarez 80%.
Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez share 1 common opponent: Donald Cerrone.
Anthony Pettis carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.