Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Pettis vs Max Holloway

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-14-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72,5"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamGracie Technics

What's at stake

Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Anthony Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony PettisNow 1680
If they win+17→ 1697
If they lose-7→ 1673
Max HollowayNow 1830
If they win+7→ 1837
If they lose-17→ 1813

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
6.91
48%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.61
54%
Strike defense
59%
0.61
Takedown avg.
0.23
50%
Takedown accuracy
53%
60%
Takedown defense
81%
1.06
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Anthony PettisMax Holloway
17001750180018502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (44%)
KO/TKO
13 (46%)
8 (32%)
Submission
2 (7%)
6 (24%)
Decision
13 (46%)

Combat Edge model read

Max Holloway92%
Anthony Pettis 8%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 92% favorite over Anthony Pettis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1680, a 150-point edge.

Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.

Anthony Pettis carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.