Anthony Pettis vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1692
If they lose-12→ 1668
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony PettisNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz60%
Anthony Pettis 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 60% favorite over Anthony Pettis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Anthony Pettis's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1680 vs 1674), separated by just 6 points.
Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.