Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Pettis vs Rafael dos Anjos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-14-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
72,5"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamRDA Academy

What's at stake

Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony PettisNow 1680
If they win+13→ 1693
If they lose-11→ 1669
Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
3.48
48%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
54%
Strike defense
60%
0.61
Takedown avg.
1.95
50%
Takedown accuracy
36%
60%
Takedown defense
55%
1.06
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Anthony PettisRafael dos Anjos
1700175020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

11 (44%)
KO/TKO
5 (16%)
8 (32%)
Submission
11 (34%)
6 (24%)
Decision
16 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Pettis56%
Rafael dos Anjos 44%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Pettis a 56% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael dos Anjos's way (45%).

Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1680, a 33-point edge.

Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.

Anthony Pettis carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.