Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Pettis vs Stephen Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-14-0Record17-9-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamTeam Upstate Karate

What's at stake

Stephen Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Anthony Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony PettisNow 1680
If they win+13→ 1693
If they lose-11→ 1669
Stephen ThompsonNow 1702
If they win+15→ 1717
If they lose-17→ 1685

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
4.11
48%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
54%
Strike defense
55%
0.61
Takedown avg.
0.25
50%
Takedown accuracy
42%
60%
Takedown defense
63%
1.06
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Anthony PettisStephen Thompson
17001750202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

11 (44%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
8 (32%)
Submission
1 (6%)
6 (24%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Pettis53%
Stephen Thompson 47%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Pettis a 53% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stephen Thompson's way (47%).

Stephen Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1680, a 22-point edge.

Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.

Stephen Thompson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.