Anthony Pettis vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Anthony Pettis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1691
If they lose-13→ 1667
If they win+13→ 1672
If they lose-11→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony PettisTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Pettis56%
Tony Ferguson 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Pettis a 56% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Anthony Pettis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1680 to 1659, a 21-point edge.
Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Anthony Pettis and Tony Ferguson share 2 common opponents: Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz.
Tony Ferguson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.