Anthony Pettis vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Roufusport· 1685 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Anthony Pettis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1691
If they lose-13→ 1667
If they win+13→ 1671
If they lose-11→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anthony PettisTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson57%
Anthony Pettis 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 57% favorite over Anthony Pettis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Anthony Pettis's way (47%).
Anthony Pettis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1680 to 1658, a 22-point edge.
Anthony Pettis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Anthony Pettis finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Anthony Pettis and Tony Ferguson share 2 common opponents: Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz.
Tony Ferguson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.