Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Demian Maia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record28-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Anthony Rocco Martin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony Rocco MartinNow 1721
If they win+18→ 1739
If they lose-14→ 1707
Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
37%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
58%
Strike defense
64%
0.71
Takedown avg.
2.49
27%
Takedown accuracy
25%
69%
Takedown defense
62%
1.02
Submission avg.
0.99

Trajectory

Anthony Rocco MartinDemian Maia
170017501800202020212022

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
3 (11%)
10 (56%)
Submission
14 (50%)
7 (39%)
Decision
11 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Rocco Martin60%
Demian Maia 40%Elo baseline: 42%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Rocco Martin a 60% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (42%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1721, a 53-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Anthony Rocco Martin finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.